Lot’s of uncertainties on strength, but, forecasters seem confident that Tropical Storm Dorian will hit Florida this weekend with at least heavy rains and gusty winds. Caution is being taken to not ignore this system and we will continue to monitor it’s development through the NWS.
800 PM AST Tue Aug 27 2019 Corrected forecaster name ...DORIAN HEADING FOR PUERTO RICO... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 62.7W ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Dominican Republic has discontinued the Hurricane Watch from Isla Saona to Samana, and discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch from Isla Saona to Punta Palenque. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Puerto Rico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico * Vieques * Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Samana A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from Samana to Puerto Plata A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located by an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 62.7 West. Dorian is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian will move across the northeastern Caribbean Sea tonight, pass over or near western and central Puerto Rico on Wednesday, and move near or just east of eastern Hispaniola Wednesday night. On Thursday night and Friday, the center of Dorian is forecast to move near or to the east of the Turks and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas. Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and Dorian is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it approaches Puerto Rico on Wednesday. Some weakening is expected after Dorian moves across the higher terrain of Puerto Rico Wednesday night. Dorian is expected to gradually re-strengthen on Thursday and Friday while passing near or to the east of the Turks and Caicos and southeastern Bahamas. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations: Guadeloupe to Dominica...1 to 4 inches. Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic...4 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches. Virgin Islands and Haiti...1 to 3 inches, isolated 4 inches. Bahamas...2 to 4 inches. Florida...3 to 5 inches, isolated 7 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible in Puerto Rico on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the U.S. Virgin Islands on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Dominican Republic late Wednesday and Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by Dorian should gradually subside in the Lesser Antilles tonight. Swells are expected to increase along the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola on Wednesday and they could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
Dry air should continue to plague Dorian for the next 24 hours or so, resulting in only slow strengthening. Land interaction with Puerto Rico should significantly weaken the small cyclone, thus the intensities were lowered at 36 and 48 hours. On days 3-5, the models continue to indicate that the upper-level flow pattern and shear conditions should favor strengthening, especially since Dorian will be moving over SSTs greater than 29 deg C and into a moist mid-level environment. The dynamical models such as the GFS, UKMET, and ECMWF are now showing more strengthening than previous runs, but still remain well below the statistical SHIPS and LGEM intensity models, which bring Dorian to category 1 or 2 strength by day 5. The official intensity forecast remains a compromise between the these two extremes, and is close to the HCCA and FSSE consensus models. Given the large spread in the guidance, there remains lower-than- normal confidence in the intensity forecast, especially on days 4 and 5.