Well, the NOAA Forecast for this hurricane season seems accurate, as the 3rd named storm of the season is Tropical Storm Cristobal.
The remnant of a “gyre” a large, broad area of low pressure that often forms in late spring and early fall over Central America and the western Caribbean Sea, Cristobal is expected to meander around Southern Mexico for the next few days. 10″-20″ of rain could fall in areas like Cancun, which just re-opened to tourists following the pandemic.
Gulf water temperatures are currently warmer than average for early June and warm enough to support tropical development, but aren’t as warm as midsummer and deep heat content is lacking in the western Gulf.
There is not expected to be much movement by Cristobal until sometime this weekend. We will continue to monitor NHC for details and let y’all know as things develop.
As of now the only thing we are sure of is everyone from Galveston,Texas to Miami,Florida should be weather aware.
BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cristobal Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 100 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020 Corrected header to reflect Tropical Storm ...CRISTOBAL MOVING SLOWLY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE... ...THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS CONTINUES... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 92.8W ABOUT 155 MI...255 KM WSW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ENE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 220 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Campeche to Puerto de Veracruz A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next within 24 to 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 92.8 West. Cristobal is moving toward the southwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). The storm is forecast to move slowly southwestward or southward through tonight, and meander over the southern Bay of Campeche through late Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Cristobal is forecast to be near the coast of the southern Bay of Campeche tonight through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible during the next day or so. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 20 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches over parts of the Mexican states of Tabasco, Veracruz, and Campeche. The depression is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches over northern Chiapas and other Mexican states, Quintana Roo and Yucatan. Additional rainfall of 10 to 15 inches, with isolated amounts of 25 inches is expected along the Pacific coasts of Chiapas, Guatemala, and El Salvador. Some of these Pacific locations received 20 inches of rain over the weekend, and storm total amounts of 35 inches are possible. Rainfall in all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are affecting the coast within portions of the warning area.
