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From the NWS 8/28/19 4:00 p.m. CST
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 PM AST Wed Aug 28 2019 ...DORIAN GRADUALLY MOVING AWAY FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A DANGEROUS HURRICANE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 65.5W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM NW OF ST. THOMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Vieques and Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Puerto Rico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the apparent eye of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 65.5 West. Dorian is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). On this track, Dorian should continue to move near or over the U.S. and British Virgin Islands during the next several hours and then move over the Atlantic well east of the southeastern Bahamas on Thursday and Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is forecast to strengthen and become a powerful hurricane during the next few days over the Atlantic waters. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations: Northern Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches. Eastern Puerto Rico, the the U.S. and British Virgin Islands...4 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches. Western Puerto Rico and the central and northwestern Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. Coastal sections of the Southeast United States...4 to 8 inches, isolated 10 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. WIND: Hurricane conditions are ongoing over portions of the U.S. Virgin Islands, and could still occur over Vieques, Culebra, and the British Virgin Islands during the next several hours. These winds should subside tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Puerto Rico this afternoon and tonight. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. SURF: Swells are expected to increase later today across the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and along the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, and they could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
Key Messages: 1. Dangerous winds will continue in the Virgin Islands, Culebra, Vieques, and portions of Puerto Rico during the next few hours. Heavy rainfall over portions of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands could produce flash flooding through Thursday morning. 2. The risk of dangerous storm surge and hurricane-force winds later this week and this weekend continues to increase in the central and northwestern Bahamas and along the Florida east coast, although it is too soon to determine where these hazards will occur. Residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and not focus on the exact forecast track of Dorian's center. 3. Heavy rains are expected to occur over portions of the Bahamas, Florida, and elsewhere in the southeastern United States later this week and into early next week.
Satellite and earlier reconnaissance plane fixes indicate that Dorian has been moving toward the northwest or 320 degrees at 12 kt. The cyclone is heading toward a weakness in the Atlantic subtropical ridge, and this northwest motion should continue for the next 24 to 48 hours. However, after that time, all the global models continue to build a strong ridge over the western Atlantic, and this flow pattern should force Dorian to turn more to the west-northwest toward Florida. All indications are that by this Labor Day weekend, a powerful hurricane will be near or over the Florida peninsula. The new NHC track forecast is a little bit to the south of the previous one, given that global models have a stronger ridge to the north and the track models show more of a westward motion. Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track, as the average 5-day track error is around 200 miles.