A tropical system in the Gulf off the coast of Mexico is expected to strengthen by the weekend. The current 5 day graphic from the National Hurricane Center gives a 40-60% chance of development.
The expected path is a turn to the Northeast with Houston, New Orleans, and Mississippi coast on alert. We will monitor as we receive info from the National Hurricane Center.
Hurricane system generally ends in November. However, 30 plus tropical systems have produced 21 named storms since 1950.
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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Oct 16 2019
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Tropical Depression Fifteen, which has degenerated into a trough of
low pressure near the northern Cabo Verde Islands.
1. A trough of low pressure located just offshore of the coast of
southern Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche, is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development is possible, and a
tropical or subtropical cyclone could form late this week over the
western or central Gulf of Mexico while the system is moving
generally northeastward. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon, if
necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
Forecaster Roberts
