NOTE- We will update the forecast as we receive updated info. Next update will come Saturday morning here on yall.com
As if quarantining away from family and friends was not enough this weekend, Mother Nature has decided to throw another egg in the basket with a very dangerous severe weather threat this weekend.
This weekends threats include:
- Threats from Texas all the way to the coast
- Tornadoes with long tracks
- Heavy severe thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday
- Flash flooding and river flooding
- Large hail and high winds.
There is much to still watch, but, this system is expected to gear up on Saturday in Texas. Also, parts of Oklahoma and Louisiana.
By Sunday this thing will start sweeping to the East. By Sunday afternoon, long track tornado warnings are expected especially in Alabama and Mississippi. Tennessee, Kentucky, Georgia, North Florida, and the Carolinas are also expected to see severe weather on Easter.
Excessive rainfall may prompt flash flooding on Saturday in parts of northeastern Texas, northwestern Louisiana and southwestern Arkansas.
The chance for flash flooding increases on Sunday. NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center has issued a moderate risk of excessive rainfall from northern Alabama and northern Georgia into southeastern Tennessee, parts of the western Carolinas and southwestern Virginia.
From the NWS/NOAA Storm Prediction Center:
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2020 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL/NORTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...MISSISSIPPI...WESTERN/CENTRAL ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms appears likely Sunday into Sunday night, with the greatest threat expected from Louisiana east-northeastward through much of the Southeast and Tennessee Valley. Strong, long-tracked tornadoes and potentially widespread damaging wind are possible. ...Synopsis... The ejecting shortwave trough initially over the southern High Plains Sunday morning is forecast to move quickly eastward and then northeastward through the period, as it moves around the periphery of a deepening longwave trough over the central CONUS. As this occurs, a surface low will move eastward to the Mississippi Valley by Sunday afternoon, and then rapidly deepen and move northeastward into the lower Great Lakes by Monday morning. Very strong mass response will draw rich low-level moisture northward into portions of the Southeast. ...East Texas into the Southeast... Ingredients for a potential severe thunderstorm outbreak still appear likely to come together Sunday. Moderate to locally strong destabilization in conjunction with an 80-100 kt midlevel jet and 50-60 kt low-level jet will result in a very favorable environment for organized convection. Ongoing storms across east TX Sunday morning will likely spread northeastward with time and become increasingly surface based as they encounter rapidly increasing low-level moisture, with additional development possible further south near the lower MS River valley by late morning. As the downstream airmass heats and destabilizes, long-track supercells may evolve out of the morning convection and track northeastward into portions of MS/AL, with a corresponding risk of strong tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind gusts. Some upscale growth is possible with time, which would result in a corresponding widespread damaging wind risk, given extremely strong wind fields. Some threat of damaging wind and a few tornadoes will likely reach portions of the Carolinas by 12Z Monday.