| Forecast Parameters | CSU Forecast for 2020* | Average for 1981-2010 |
|---|---|---|
| Named Storms | 24 | 12.1 |
| Named Storm Days | 100 | 59.4 |
| Hurricanes | 12 | 6.4 |
| Hurricane Days | 45 | 24.2 |
| Major Hurricanes | 5 | 2.7 |
| Major Hurricane Days | 11 | 6.2 |
| Accumulated Cyclone Energy+ | 200 | 106 |
| *Total forecast includes Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna and Isaias which have formed in the Atlantic as of August 4th. | ||
| +A measure of a named storm’s potential for wind and storm surge destruction defined as the sum of the square of a named storm’s maximum wind speed (in 104 knots2) for each 6-hour period of its existence. | ||
We have increased our forecast and now call for an extremely active 2020 Atlantic hurricane season.
Sea surface temperatures averaged across the tropical Atlantic are much warmer than normal, and vertical wind shear is well below average. Current cool neutral ENSO conditions may transition to weak La Niña conditions by later this summer. We anticipate an above-normal probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean.
As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.
