A multi-day severe threat is probable throughout most of the South this week beginning Tuesday. Here is what we know from the National Weather Service. Please be weather aware , even though it is February. Watch or listen to local channels for updates.
- Severe thunderstorms will threaten the South Tuesday through Thursday.
- Damaging wind gusts, hail and isolated tornadoes are possible.
- Heavy rain could cause flooding in the South and Ohio Valley.
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TX THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday from East Texas across the Mid-South. Damaging wind gusts and hail will be the primary threats.
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms associated with wind damage and hail will be possible Wednesday night across parts of the central Gulf Coast region. ...Southeast... An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the High Plains on Wednesday as southwest mid-level flow remains in place from the Southern Plains to the Atlantic Seaboard. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance southeastward into the Southeast as a moist airmass remains in place ahead of the front. Thunderstorm development will be possible during the day along and ahead of the front from Louisiana east-northeastward to central Alabama. Relatively weak instability should keep any severe threat marginal during the day. By Wednesday evening, model forecasts suggest that a subtle shortwave trough will move quickly northeastward from the western Gulf of Mexico to the central Gulf Coast. In response to lift associated with the shortwave trough and increasing low-level warm advection, convection should increase in coverage across the north-central Gulf of Mexico. These thunderstorms are forecast to move northeastward during the overnight period, reaching the central Gulf Coast around 06Z.
...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4... An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. on Thursday as a powerful 100 to 120 kt mid-level jet moves across the Southeast. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance southeastward across the central Gulf Coast States on Thursday. A moist airmass should be in place ahead of the front from Florida north-northeastward into the Carolinas. A line of strong thunderstorms is expected to develop by midday from the Florida Panhandle to the Carolinas with this feature moving eastward across the region during the afternoon. The mid-level jet will be associated with strong deep-layer shear and a band of enhanced large-scale ascent. This should support squall line development Thursday afternoon. Wind damage, hail and perhaps an isolated tornado threat will be possible along or ahead of the line.