| Day 1 Risk |
Area (sq. mi.) |
Area Pop. |
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area |
| MODERATE |
18,127 |
1,064,056 |
Jackson, MS…Alexandria, LA…Vicksburg, MS…Clinton, MS…Pearl, MS… |
| ENHANCED |
39,104 |
2,055,280 |
Baton Rouge, LA…Lake Charles, LA…Monroe, LA…Hattiesburg, MS…Meridian, MS… |
| SLIGHT |
93,471 |
9,546,243 |
New Orleans, LA…Birmingham, AL…Montgomery, AL…Mobile, AL…Huntsville, AL… |
| MARGINAL |
53,683 |
7,336,335 |
Columbus, GA…Chattanooga, TN…Beaumont, TX…Sandy Springs, GA…Murfreesboro, TN… |
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SPC AC 161925
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0125 PM CST Mon Dec 16 2019
Valid 162000Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe thunderstorms will continue to affect parts of the
Lower Mississippi Valley region this afternoon and evening, and into
portions of Alabama and the Tennessee Valley. Several tornadoes --
including a couple of long-track/significant ones -- along with
damaging winds, remain the primary hazards. The peak tornado risk is
expected through early evening, centered on northern and central
Louisiana into central Mississippi.
...Discussion...
Overall forecast reasoning and expectations as laid out in the prior
outlook remain valid, as an area of thunderstorms -- including
several severe/supercell storms -- continues to move eastward across
the Sabine and lower Mississippi Valleys. The most significant
severe weather is ongoing across portions of central Louisiana and
vicinity at this time -- i.e. across western portions of the ENH and
MDT risk areas -- where a couple of long-track/damaging tornadoes
have occurred over the past couple of hours. Given a similarly
favorable downstream environment, expect this risk to continue over
the next several hours, before diminishing later tonight as storms
-- and the parent cold front -- shift eastward into a less unstable
environment.
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